Economic forecasting – Market forecasting and modelling
Knowledge of the current and projected value of a given phenomenon (e.g. market value, demand or prices) is an essential element in business decision-making. An accurate assessment of the condition of a given industry, together with an analysis of its growth potential and an evaluation of indicators specific to that field help companies choose the optimum strategy, providing a real business advantage.
The data and forecasts prepared by PMR experts are the result of specialised (quantitative) research methods, techniques and tools combined with market-specific knowledge, resulting from the many years of experience. As a result, our clients receive detailed data and reliable forecasts, as well as an overview of key growth factors and aspects influencing a given phenomenon, which allows a complete description of the market situation.
Examples of information we provide to our clients:
- What is the current value and size of a given market?
- What is the projected growth rate in the coming years?
- What level is it likely to reach over the forecast period?
- What factors of growth and decline affect the changes? How to measure their real impact on business?
- What macroeconomic variables should be observed regularly?
- What are the basic assumptions about the macroeconomic environment in the coming years?
- What significant new trends will affect growth in the coming years?
- What is the most likely market development scenario?
Some of decisions our clients make based on our projections:
- Which market segment to invest in?
- How to restructure a product portfolio?
- Which market segments should be distinguished?
- Which market entry strategy to choose?
- How to adjust the budget to anticipated market changes?
Macroeconomic environment, demand and supply, public sector influence, product and factor prices, employment and wages in the sector: the spectrum of factors having impact on the condition of a given industry is broad. We help our clients to select and monitor the most important ones, providing insight into their expected development paths in the coming years.
In addition, in response to the diverse needs of our clients, we offer data analysed from different perspectives:
- statistics for states/regions/provinces/cities
- analyses of aggregated data (e.g. value of the entire market), as well as of components (e.g. distribution channels, segments or products)
- indicators with different reporting frequencies (e.g. monthly, quarterly, yearly data)
- short-term (e.g. month), medium-term (current and following year) and long-term forecasts (mainly 5-year timespan, with a potential extension of the forecasting period, e.g. to 10 years)
- scenario analyses, based on assumptions suggested by PMR experts (e.g. higher/lower than expected economic growth), positive and negative risk factors for the forecasts selected in accordance with the assessment of the likelihood of their occurrence.
The reliability of our forecasts is guaranteed by the methods we use:
- we use advanced quantitative methods and econometric modelling
- we make use of the market research knowledge and expertise gained during 25 years of our activity
- we rely on external and internal data sources, ensuring their consistency and comparability
- we analyse the situation in the global, international, regional and local context
- we take into account macroeconomic conditions
- we identify specific conditions related to a given market
- we incorporate market feedback and qualitative and quantitative research results into the process
- we analyse potential structural changes on the market
- we take into account the characteristics of the local market
- we expand on the analysis of (current and future) trends by assessing their impact on the market and a particular company
- our forecasts are double-checked by independent members of the project team.
Data and forecasts: what is more?
Preparing forecasts does not exhaust the possibilities of using econometrics in business consulting.
What other services are available to our clients?
- Analysis of the investment potential of an area (e.g. province, city)
- Analysis of investment prospects in a given industry
- Development of rankings
- Development of synthetic indicators, responding to specific clients’ needs
- Convergence studies
- Grouping of units (e.g. production plants, consumers) in terms of their similarity – cluster analysis.
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