Forecasts

 
Our forecasts are used by our clients to draft their strategies and sales plans, to decide when and how much to buy and to assess future risks on the commodity markets.
Maciej Gazda

Head of Forecasting

 

 

 

HIGH LEVEL OF FORECASTING ACCURACY

Our typical error rate (MAPE)
is less than 3–5% per year
for 5-to-10-year forecasts.
We have published hundreds of forecasts over the past 25 years.
Many of the forecasts available in PMR’s market reports and analyses are published in the media. Those forecasts can easily be subjected to an independent accuracy assessment.
Every econometric modelling process carried out is archived and properly documented.
LARGE NUMBER OF INDICATORS ANALYSED
We analyse dozens of macroeconomic indicators and several hundred industry indices. In recent years we have developed individual indicator and data sets for most industries and many product categories. The broad range of data we use ensures that all measurable factors which affect the value of the examined market are included.

Examples of indicators:
macroeconomic, including GDP, unemployment, consumption, public and private sector investment, exports, imports, industrial production, production of specific commodities, agricultural production and spending in the wake of EU-funded measures
demand-side: not least wages and salaries, the disposable incomes of consumers and businesses, benefits gained from social programmes, capital expenditure by companies and the public sector, the volume of tourism and the number of staff
supply-side, including the number of stores, offices, service outlets and companies and the volume of agricultural production
pricing, including the cost of consumer goods and services, producer prices, agricultural and energy commodity prices, and electricity and gas prices
investment plans and the ongoing monetary policy of the state, including interest rates, and planned spending on roads, railways and energy projects
demographics, with a detailed breakdown by age, gender and location.
10/08/2023
Accuracy of annual forecasts for the facade market
Accuracy of annual forecasts for the facade market The mean absolute percentage error of the facade market size forecast was 1.9%.     The error was also modest for the market when broken down into subgroups, with an average figure of 1.6% observed.    We determined the forecast accuracy in accordance with the mean absolute percentage […]
10/08/2023
Accuracy of annual forecasts for the cosmetics retail market
Accuracy of annual forecasts for the cosmetics retail market We determined the forecast accuracy by using the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), demonstrating how much PMR’s forecasts differed, on average, from the actual values:      where n is the number of periods (years) for which the variable is forecast.    The key obstacle to […]
10/08/2023
Accuracy of annual forecasts for the pay TV and VOD services market
Accuracy of annual forecasts for the cosmetics retail market We determined the forecast accuracy by using the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), demonstrating how much PMR’s forecasts differed, on average, from the actual values:      where n is the number of periods (years) for which the variable is forecast.    The crucial obstacle to […]
10/08/2023
Accuracy of annual forecasts for the private healthcare market
Accuracy of annual forecasts for the cosmetics private healthcare market We determined the forecast accuracy by using the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), demonstrating how much PMR’s forecasts differed, on average, from the actual values:      where n is the number of periods (years) for which the variable is forecast.    We present MAPE […]

CHOOSING THE RIGHT METHOD

We use a range of statistical methods, based on time series analyses such as ARIMA, VAR, GARCH and OLS, and on other statistical analysis approaches, such as ANOVA and cluster analysis. On every occasion we endeavour to choose the best methods, depending on the process being modelled, and the amount, category and quality of data.

Benefits for our clients:

  • we are able to match the best method to the data available in our databases or the data provided to us by the client in order to produce the best possible forecast in any given situation;
  • we minimise the uncertainties accompanying the choice of statistical methods, allowing the client to focus only on the substantive analysis of premises directly related to economics and the market.

CLEAR COMMUNICATION

We ensure that the indicators employed in our models are clear and comprehensible to users

Benefits for our clients:

  • each forecast is supplied with a concise presentation of the manner in which it should be interpreted;
  • all of the relevant variables used in the forecasts are described in a simple fashion, and, as a result, they can be easily interpreted by managers and analysts;
  • the client gains an insight not only into what we consider the most likely scenario of future events but also into the key risk factors affecting the accuracy of our forecast and their potential impact on the analysed market and the economy in general.
Are you looking for the best solution for the further development of your company?

Contact us today!

Monika Szczypta

Senior Business Development Manager

 

Mobile: +48 607 979 580