The cosmetics market will grow, mainly driven by price increases
In 2023, the value of the cosmetics market in Poland will exceed 31 billion PLN, with a growth of 6.2%. However, in real terms, the dynamics will be negative. This is according to the report “Cosmetics retail market in Poland” by PMR. PMR also predicts that body and bath products will be the only ones associated with basic personal hygiene, with dynamics higher than inflation.
Value and dynamics of the cosmetics market in Poland
According to PMR’s forecasts, the cosmetics market in Poland will grow by 6.2% in nominal terms in 2023, but the real dynamics will be negative, at -0.8%, and the sales value of cosmetics will surpass 31 billion PLN.
One of the main factors contributing to nominal market growth will be inflation. The slowdown in dynamics will result from a decrease in real disposable income and real wages, leading to a clear slowdown in private consumption. An additional positive factor will be the presence of around 1.5 million refugees from Ukraine in Poland (on average), who will support real market growth in terms of daily skincare cosmetics.
Find comprehensive information about the current state of the Polish cosmetics retail market in the PMR report:
Cosmetics retail market in Poland. Market analysis and development forecasts for 2023-2028. Impact of inflation and war in Ukraine.
Body and bath care cosmetics with real growth in 2023 and 2024
According to PMR estimates, body and bath care cosmetics will be the only cosmetic categories among those related to basic personal hygiene that will have growth dynamics higher than the expected price increases in 2023-2024.
As a result, these categories will strengthen their market share during this time. We forecast that by 2024, the share of body care cosmetics will exceed 17%, and bath care cosmetics will have nearly 13% share of the total cosmetic market, increasing by 0.4 and 0.2 percentage points respectively compared to 2022.
However, in the long term, the share of products related to basic personal hygiene, namely body care cosmetics and bath care cosmetics, will decline. By 2028, these categories will slightly lose market share. In the forecast horizon, body care will lose its position as the category with the largest market share in the cosmetic market, giving way to face care cosmetics. For years, it has been the largest category in the Polish cosmetic market, providing the foundation for skincare for both genders.
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Senior Retail Analyst