Polish telecoms market worth PLN 42.2bn in 2022
According to the latest PMR report, the Polish telecoms market was worth PLN 41.3bn in 2021. Estimates for 2022 show a continuation of the upward trend and a value of PLN 42.2bn.
PMR forecasts indicate that the market will reach PLN 43.5bn in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.9% between 2022 and 2027.
Value and change of the telecommunications services market in Poland
The growth of the analysed market will be mainly driven by revenues generated in broadband and mobile telephony.
The ISP market is the most promising segment of the telecommunications market in Poland.
Its growing revenue is the result of the consistent expansion of the fibre-optic infrastructure, the development of the “wholesale + retail” model and the demand for higher bandwidth services. In the case of mobile telephony, it was also crucial for MNOs’ revenues that in 2019-2022 they introduced higher prices for mobile services in the post-paid and pre-paid segments, at the same time increasing the volumes of their data transmission packages. In this context, it is worth noting that mobile operators’ revenues are increasing, despite further planned reductions in wholesale rates (MTRs).
More than 81 million RGUs in the telecommunications market in Poland
The value of the market in each segment is also influenced by the greater number of provided services. According to PMR estimates, in 2021 a total of approximately 81.8 million services (total number of RGUs) were accounted for in the telecommunications market in Poland.
Mobile telephony has the majority share of total RGUs, followed by pay TV and internet services market.
In the next few years the biggest growth prospects in volume terms will continue to be seen in the mobile telephony market.
Number of RGUs (million) in the telecommunications market in Poland, 2020-2023
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 e | 2023 f |
|---|---|---|---|
| 79,6 | 81,8 | 84,8 | 86,0 |
Note: including the number of SIM cards (post-paid and pre-paid) in the mobile telephony market, the number of fixed-line internet access services, the number of fixed-line telephony services and the number of pay TV subscribers.
e – estimate
f – forecast
Source: PMR, 2022
Impact of war and pandemic on the telecommunications market
The growth in the number of SIM cards in the coming years will be driven by the rapid development of the M2M card segment. On the other hand, operators will continue to focus on a strategy of continuous migration of prepaid customers to postpaid services.
A new factor is the war in Ukraine and the associated influx of refugees into Poland. According to PMR estimates, the four MNOs distributed a total of over one million prepaid cards as part of aid, which resulted in an increase in the consumer base. However, in our opinion, this will be a short-term increase. The operators themselves confirm that only a fraction of the SIM cards distributed are regularly topped up after expiry.
The driver in the ISP market proved to be the COVID-19 pandemic. During this time, the number of broadband services provided increased by a record over one million users. Infrastructure investments and the operators’ strategy of launching their fibre networks are also a growth driver in the ISP market. The investments are significant in that they most often are directed to areas where technology in a high-standard fixed location was not previously available. In our opinion, the open fibre-optic infrastructure model will shape the future of the telecommunications market in Poland.
Find comprehensive information about the current state of the Polish telecommunications market in the PMR report:
Further declines in the fixed-line telephony segment
The negative impact on the telecommunications market is exerted by the fixed-line telephony, which for more than a decade has shown a decline in both the revenues generated and the number of provided services. The key reason for the downward trend is the substitution with mobile telephony services, including first of all mobile services with unlimited calls to all networks. The decline in the number of lines in the B2C market is also influenced by structural demographic factors. In the B2B market, which has so far neutralised the scale of the declines, fixed-line numbers are increasingly replaced with mobile phones due to the suspected spam by systems and applications, signalled by those receiving calls from fixed-line networks.
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ICT Business Unit Director