News - 3 August 2023

Poles spend ever more in grocery stores – inflation is not the only market driver

In 2022, the frequency with which Poles cooked at home was higher than the year before, and the value of the grocery retail market increased at a double-digit rate to PLN 368bn, according to PMR latest report: “Grocery retail market in Poland 2023. Market analysis and development forecasts for 2023-2028.”

 

Find comprehensive information about the current state of the Polish grocery retail market in the PMR report:

 

Grocery retail market in Poland. Market analysis and development forecasts for 2023-2028. Impact of inflation and war in Ukraine.

 

Poles' more frequent cooking at home boosts grocery sales

Shopping habits and preparing meals at home have a major impact on the value of the grocery retail market. The survey conducted by PMR in April 2023 shows that almost 70% of respondents agree with the statement that they cooked at home more often over the past year. On the one hand, this is related to the need to save. On the other hand, this is an effect of changing eating habits – Poles also increasingly pay more attention to the ingredients of products they buy and choose diets that suit their tastes or health.

According to PMR estimates, the grocery retail market was worth nearly PLN 368bn in 2022, following the record double-digit growth, driven by inflation. Additionally, the growth rate is underpinned by the presence of immigrants from Ukraine and the resulting higher demand for food products, as well as by changes in consumer behaviour.

 

The nominal growth rate will remain high well into 2023, when food prices will still be rising strongly. According to PMR forecasts, growth in the grocery retail market will be continued over the next five years, although its rate will slow down in nominal terms.

Discounters propel the market, online sales are also on the rise

Discounters are the largest channel in the grocery retail market in Poland, which controlled more than a third of sales in 2022. In recent years, we have seen a growing market share of this store format, which is linked to the trend towards the supermarketisation of discounters. They are expanding their fresh and convenience offerings, developing deli and premium private label product range, and offering selected non-food goods. We expect this trend to continue in the future.

 

According to PMR forecasts, both discounters and online sales will grow at a 2023-2028 compound annual growth rate (CAGR) higher than the average for the entire grocery retail market in Poland.

Methodology:

The presented findings come from PMR report: “Grocery retail market in Poland 2023. Market analysis and growth forecasts for 2023-2028′, for which PMR conducted a consumer survey in April 2023 with a nationwide quota and random sample of 996 adult Poles, who were asked about their grocery purchases. The survey was conducted using the CAWI (computer-assisted web interview) method.

 

According to PMR definition, the value of retail trade in groceries includes the value of all products sold in grocery stores (food and non-food goods, including clothing, footwear, consumer electronics/appliances, home furnishings, toys) and food sold through other distribution channels (including marketplaces and open-air markets, specialty stores, health and beauty stores, etc.).

 

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Agnieszka Skonieczna

Market Analysis Director