By 2030, the size of the data center market in Poland may exceed 500 MW
PMR forecasts, based on mapped investments by the largest providers, as well as announcements and plans by new players, indicate that Polish data centers will exceed 500 MW of power by 2030. The conservative scenario and minimum plan, assuming strong phased investments, would achieve about half of the indicated power by 2028.a
The latest PMR forecasts show that the implementation of plans by the largest data center providers in Poland could cause a maximum increase in commercial server power of over 400 MW, from approximately 120 MW in 2022. It should be noted that this is an optimistic scenario that does not take into account the typical phased implementation of investments. A 7-year perspective seems realistic, although the likelihood of each player’s plans being realized varies and requires individual consideration.
We still expect a gradual increase in demand for colocation services in the country, as well as the emergence of new foreign customers in the market. The market will be increasingly divided into wholesale and retail segments. The size of the market in terms of power supply and space in hyperscale data centers will also increase.
Find comprehensive information about the current state of the Polish data centre market in the PMR report:
Data centre market in Poland. Market analysis and development forecasts for 2023-2028. Impact of inflation and war in Ukraine.
Development of the wholesale data center market
In practice, large investment projects already signify sales in a wholesale model and contracting clients before the construction process is completed. In our opinion, the ongoing concentration of capital in Poland and new investors are absolutely the primary factors driving market development in the coming years, which will significantly increase the level of data center service revenues. It is impossible to assume that the entire list of significant investment projects being implemented and planned by major investors is calculated differently than to generate an appropriate return on allocated funds within a reasonable time frame.
On the list of data center service providers operating in Poland and focused on the wholesale market are companies like EdgeConneX, Vantage Data Centers, and Data4, as well as operators known primarily for serving the retail market, such as Atman and Equinix Poland.
The wholesale market is primarily composed of the largest public cloud providers, such as AWS, Google, and Microsoft. Google already has a cloud region in Poland, while Microsoft officially launched its region on April 26, 2023, based on three autonomous data centers. Two of them were built and operated by an external partner exclusively for Microsoft’s needs.
Warsaw's Dominance
Warsaw accounts for over 60% of the total commercial server space in Poland. Close to 10% of the net space is located in Krakow, and 8% in Poznan. The list of locations has seen a shift with Gdansk, which gained a new commercial facility last year through 3S Data Center.
Investment plans in the immediate future suggest that Warsaw’s share will continue to grow. Warsaw generates by far the largest demand for data center services, including colocation. However, it is also the most competitive and demanding market, where success is determined by experience and a comprehensive offer.
On the other hand, centers in other locations also play a role, although the scale of such investments is different. In the context of the war in Ukraine, georedundancy, which provides access to an alternative data center located much further away from the main server room than 15-20 km within the Warsaw agglomeration, has become more important. This is a trend driven by the geopolitical situation.
The analysis of the locations of the 40 largest commercial data processing centers confirms the dominance of Warsaw, which occupies 25 out of 40 places on the list of leading data center facilities in early 2023.
Increasing Expenditures on Data Center Services
According to this year’s PMR research, two-thirds of companies increased their spending on data center services in 2022 compared to 2021, and this percentage is expected to increase in 2023. Only 4% of companies plan to spend less on these services than in 2022.
In contrast, the anticipated change in spending scale on services in 2023 varies depending on the size of the company, but 70% of companies plan to increase spending again, with 24% looking to increase spending by more than 10%.
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ICT Business Unit Director