Econometric Analysis

Knowledge of the current and predicted value of a given phenomenon (e.g., market value, demand volume and market prices) is an essential element in the making of business decisions.

The proper assessment of the condition of a given industry and the analysis of its growth potential, combined with the evaluation of indicators specific to a given field, supports the choice of an optimal strategy, providing a real business advantage.

The data and forecasts offered by PMR specialists reflect a combination of specialist (quantitative) research methods, techniques and tools with specific market knowledge resulting from the many years of experience gained by our experts. As a result, our clients receive detailed data and reliable forecasts, along with an overview of key development factors and those affecting a given issue, and this allows them to obtain a more complete picture of the market situation.

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What examples of information do customers receive from us?

  • What is the current figure for a given phenomenon: for example, market value?
  • What is the expected rate of growth in the next few years?
  • What level might the forecast horizon reach?
  • What growth and decline factors influence changes? How should one measure their real impact on business?
  • What macroeconomic variables should be regularly observed?
  • What are the basic assumptions pertaining to the macroeconomic environment in the coming years?
  • What important new trends will affect development in the near future?
  • How should one determine the most probable development scenario? What other scenarios are possible?

What sort of decisions made by customers have been based on our forecasts?

  • Which market subgroup to invest in
  • How to rebuild the product portfolio
  • Which market subdivisions should be identified
  • Which market entry strategy to choose
  • How to adjust the budget to comply with the expected market changes

Tailor-made products

The spectrum of factors which affect the condition of a given industry is wide and can include the macroeconomic environment, demand and supply volumes, the influence of the public sector, product prices and factor costs, employment levels and wages. We help to select and monitor the most important elements, while providing insight into their predicted development paths in subsequent years.

At the same time, in response to the diverse needs of our clients, we offer data from different perspectives:

  • statistics for countries/regions/provinces/cities,
  • analyses at the level of aggregates (e.g., the value of the overall market), along with components (including those pertaining to distribution channels, market subgroups and products),
  • indicators with different frequencies (e.g., monthly, quarterly and annual),
  • short-term (e.g., monthly), medium-term (current and future) and long-term (mainly 5 years, with a potential extension of the forecast period: perhaps 10+ years) forecasts,
  • scenario analyses based on assumptions proposed by PMR experts (including economic growth which exceeds or falls short of expectations); positive and negative risk factors for forecasts selected on the basis of an assessment of the probability of their occurrence.

The reliability of forecasts is guaranteed by the techniques we use:

  • We use advanced quantitative methods and econometric modelling,
  • we benefit from knowledge and experience resulting from many years of activity,
  • we rely on external and internal data sources, ensuring their consistency and comparability,
  • we analyse the situation at the global, international, regional and local levels,
  • we take macroeconomic conditions into account,
  • we identify specific conditions related to a given forecasting area,
  • we incorporate market feedback and marketing research results into the process,
  • we analyse potential structural changes in the market,
  • we take the specifics of the local market into account,
  • we deepen the analysis of current and future trends – with regard to their impact on the market and a specific company,
  • we apply the principle of re-verification of forecasts by independent project team members.

Data and forecasts – what more?
The creation of forecasts does not exhaust the possibilities involved in using econometrics in business consulting.

What other examples of solutions are available to our customers?

  • Analysis of the investment potential of an area (for example, a voivodeship or city),
  • Analysis of the investment potential of the industry,
  • The creation of rankings,
  • Construction of synthetic indicators, responding to specific customer needs,
  • Convergence studies,
  • Grouping of units (including production plants and consumers) in terms of similarity – cluster analysis.
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