Accuracy of annual forecasts for the private healthcare market

We determined the forecast accuracy by using the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), demonstrating how much PMR’s forecasts differed, on average, from the actual values: 

where n is the number of periods (years) for which the variable is forecast. 

We present MAPE calculations based directly on 2018-2023 data and projections. 

The average MAPEs for private healthcare market value, excluding spending on drugs and non-drugs, are acceptable. The forecast errors from the 2018-2019 reports are not inconsiderable, but that is a consequence of our inability, at that time, to foresee the constraints on health services brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic.  

MAPE for private healthcare market value forecasts, excluding spending on drugs and non-drugs, 2018-2022: 

The mean absolute percentage error of the 2018 private healthcare market value forecast, excluding spending on drugs and non-drugs, was 10.3%.  

The predictive accuracy assessment was based on data from our “Private healthcare market in Poland 2022” report and its historical versions.