>Accuracy of annual forecasts for the facade market
Case studies - 10 August 2023
Accuracy of annual forecasts for the facade market
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Accuracy of annual forecasts for the facade market
The mean absolute percentage error of the facade market size forecast was 1.9%.
The error was also modest for the market when broken down into subgroups, with an average figure of 1.6% observed.
We determined the forecast accuracy in accordance with the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), revealing how much PMR’s forecasts differed, on average, from the actual values:
where n is the number of periods (years) for which the variable is forecast.
The predictive accuracy assessment was based on data from our report “Facade market in Poland 2022” and its historical versions.
Facade market size in Poland
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Forecast
55 112 172
55 673 926
59 322 462
59 426 467
64 390 749
65 509 414
68 642 420
69 192 989
Actual situation
55 112 172
55 673 926
59 322 462
59 426 467
64 390 749
65 509 414
68 642 420
70 527 871
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