Case studies - 10 August 2023

Accuracy of annual forecasts for the facade market

Accuracy of annual forecasts for the facade market

The mean absolute percentage error of the facade market size forecast was 1.9%.  

 

The error was also modest for the market when broken down into subgroups, with an average figure of 1.6% observed. 

 

We determined the forecast accuracy in accordance with the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), revealing how much PMR’s forecasts differed, on average, from the actual values: 

 

 

where n is the number of periods (years) for which the variable is forecast. 

 

The predictive accuracy assessment was based on data from our report “Facade market in Poland 2022” and its historical versions. 

 

Facade market size in Poland 

 

20152016201720182019202020212022
Forecast 55 112 172 55 673 926 59 322 462 59 426 467 64 390 749 65 509 414 68 642 420 69 192 989
Actual situation 55 112 172 55 673 926 59 322 462 59 426 467 64 390 749 65 509 414 68 642 420 70 527 871
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Maciej Gazda

Head of Forecasting